I’ve spent a sizable chunk of my new year reading about the future of computing, and I’ve read a lot of different things from a lot of different people. If I had to pick out a common thread, though, I’d say that by all accounts Microsoft has its work cut out for it. Tablets, smartphones, and cloud computing are all anyone wants to talk about, and the unfortunate reality is that Microsoft is struggling in most if not all of these markets. Now that I’m done reading, I want to spend a little time writing about the state of Microsoft, and just what its year could look like.
On Monday we reported that, while Windows 7 share made a sizable jump over the holidays, total Windows market share was down slightly for the month of December to 90.29 percent. This is the latest evidence in a very slow, very gradual, but very definite decline for Windows, which stood at 92.21 percent market share a year ago. If we were taking bets I’d say that it will dip below 90 percent for the first time in years by the end of 2011.
I don’t think Microsoft needs to be wringing its hands just yet – Windows 7 is doing very well, and 90 percent of the market is still eighteen times higher than that of OS X, its nearest competitor. Many of the devices running Android and iOS, the operating systems to which Windows lost most of its share in 2010, belong to people who are also running Windows on their laptops and desktops. Windows is doing fine. It’s just that, well, 90 percent of the market can become 57.1 percent of the market distressingly quickly.
Yes, the bad news continues to roll in for Internet Explorer, which dropped below 60 percent share in September and has been losing share to Chrome, Firefox and Safari all year. For as long as computers are around, Internet Explorer is going to have a sizable share of the browser market cornered – my completely unscientific prediction that it will have above half the market for quite awhile and will stop losing share so quickly when IE6 is finally banished – but this rapid drop in market share from its total domination of the market just a few short years ago could be a prediction of things to come for Windows if things continue to go poorly.
That being said, Internet Explorer 9 is a pretty excellent browser, and its release may stem the flow of defectors. It’s a vast improvement over the poky Internet Explorer 8, and for the first time in quite awhile Microsoft is bringing some speed and innovation to the table instead of playing catchup with everyone else.
Where Microsoft also needs to impress in 2011 is in its new Windows Phone 7 OS, which faces stiff competition from iOS and Android. The OS made its debut to decent sales numbers and generally positive reviews, and a few updates should give it most of the functionality that its competitors have. Virtually the same thing could be said for Android when it launched. In my view, Windows 7 has a couple of important advantages over Android that could help it succeed in the long run, if Microsoft can play its cards right: its more centralized update mechanism, and its more consistent interface across different phones and carriers.
Android updates are largely left up to the manufacturer, which means that many phones get updates belatedly or not at all. Android is also subject to a lot of vendor customization – phone manufacturers and carriers get the base Android OS from Google and slaps a bunch of carrier-specific customizations and skins over top of it. These two things have led to market defragmentation that’s only going to hurt the platform going forward, and if Windows Phone 7's consistency can help prevent this, 2011 could be the year that Windows on phones stops being a joke and starts being a success story.
I think a real, serious tablet competitor from Microsoft is on everyone’s wishlist for CES. I’m not talking about Windows 7 on some anemic Atom-powered slate, which everyone has already passed on, and I’m not talking about a glimpse at Windows 8, which may be too little and will be too late. Microsoft needs to showcase a tablet OS that runs on ARM hardware and is months away from shipping, not years. Using Windows Phone 7, an OS designed from the ground-up for touchscreens, as a base is a no-brainer, and I have no idea why Microsoft has been so reluctant to do so.
The iPad basically has the market to itself. Android tablets are trickling out, but they suffer slightly from the aforementioned fragmentation problems and it seems that true tablet support features are eternally destined to come in “the next version.” If Microsoft is serious about competing in this space, it needs to do it now.
Right now, Microsoft is a company with generally good products but sometimes poor marketing and execution. This is the company that used the ridiculously overwrought phrase “Always Delightful, Wonderfully Mine” to debut the do-or-die revamp of its phone OS. Try harder, guys. Or, better yet, stop trying so hard.
As is the case with any prediction or forecast, there’s no way to tell what will actually happen but sit and wait patiently. Windows is doing pretty well and Microsoft Office still fails to have a serious competitor – these are the markets in which Microsoft has traditionally dominated. These markets are where Microsoft will continue to perform well for some time to come. But if Microsoft wants to remain a serious competitor in 2011 and beyond, it’s going to need a slam dunk. Preferably several.
What Will 2011 Bring for Microsoft?, 10.0 out of 10 based on 3 ratings
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